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The Bank of Canada announced on April 15^th, 2015 it was keeping its trend-setting overnight lending rate at 0.75 per cent.

While official economic growth statistics for the first quarter of 2015 won’t be available until the end of May, the Bank estimates that Canada’s economy was stuck in neutral. Governor Poloz had already telegraphed as much in an interview with the Financial Times and it should come as no surprise given the impact of the drop in oil prices this year.

In its interest rate announcement, the Bank made it clear that it thinks the worst of the damage to the Canadian economy from lower oil prices is behind us. It expects economic activity to bounce back in the second and third quarters even more strongly than previously predicted due mainly to an anticipated increase in non-energy exports.

The Bank’s forecast is perhaps optimistic regarding near term economic prospects given, since there is scant evidence that non-energy exports are in fact ramping up. Moreover, its Monetary Policy Report (MPR) which accompanied the announcement acknowledged that “the full impact of the decline in oil prices has yet to show up in employment statistics.”

The rebalanced forecast allows the Bank to maintain its view that inflation will return to its two per cent target by the end of 2016. At this point, that means the goalposts for the first interest rate hike have not moved. Most Bay Street economists expect the Bank to keep interest rates on hold until late 2016.

That said, the Bank identified greater than anticipated economic fallout from oil prices as the number one risk to its forecast. If damage to the Canadian economy from lower oil prices worsen or drag on for longer than anticipated, it may be forced to again downgrade its next economic forecast and perhaps trim interest rates in July.

As of April 15^th, 2015, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 4.64 per cent, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous Bank rate announcement on March 4^th, and down 0.35 percentage points from one year ago.

The next interest rate announcement will be on May 27^th, 2015. The next update to the Monetary Policy Report will be on July 15^th, 2015.

(CREA 04/15/2015)

The further decline in oil prices since CREA’s last forecast has shaken consumer confidence in the Prairies, pushing potential homebuyers to the sidelines and prompting more homeowners to put their home on the market. This has led to a rapid shift in market balance in Alberta, and to a lesser extent, Saskatchewan. Annual sales in these provinces are expected to come in well below elevated levels posted last year, with small declines in average residential prices in 2015.

Additionally, the Canadian dollar has weakened further against the U.S. dollar, mortgage rates have declined and the U.S. economy has strengthened since CREA’s last forecast, which taken together are expected to benefit economic and job growth in other provinces. Accordingly, CREA has upwardly revised its forecast for sales activity for much of the rest of the country.

The balance between supply and demand continues to tighten in British Columbia and Ontario. These are the only two provinces where tight supply relative to demand is expected to result in average price gains that surpass inflation this year.

By contrast, average prices in Quebec and the Atlantic region are expected to remain relatively stable, as sales deplete elevated levels of supply.

On balance, the forecast for national sales has been revised lower, reflecting downward revisions to the outlook for sales in Alberta. National sales are now projected to reach 475,700 units in 2015, representing an annual decline of 1.1 per cent. This would place annual activity slightly above but still broadly in line with its 10-year average (Chart A).

British Columbia is projected to post the largest annual increase in activity in 2015 (+4.9 per cent) followed closely by Nova Scotia (+3.7 per cent), Quebec (+2.5 per cent), New Brunswick (+2.5 per cent), Ontario (+1.9 per cent), and Prince Edward Island (+1.4 per cent). These numbers represent upward revisions to CREA’s previous forecast.

Alberta is expected to post the largest annual decline in sales this year (-19.2 per cent), though the trend for activity is expected to begin recovering from a weak start to the year as consumer confidence recovers. Sales are also forecast to decline on an annual basis in Saskatchewan (-11.2 per cent), and Manitoba (-1.3 per cent).

The national average home price is now forecast to rise by two per cent to $416,200 in 2015. Only British Columbia (+3.4 per cent) and Ontario (+2.5 per cent) are forecast to see gains in excess of the national increase.

Prices are projected to remain largely stable elsewhere, with increases or decreases of around one per cent or less this year. The exception is Alberta, where average price is forecast to fall by 3.4 per cent, reflecting a pullback in sales for luxury properties compared to homes in more affordable price segments.

In 2016, national sales activity is forecast to reach 482,700 units, representing an annual increase of 1.7 per cent. Much of the annual increase reflects an anticipated recovery for sales activity in Alberta and Saskatchewan in line with expected economic improvement in those provinces.

Strengthening economic prospects are expected to result in improving sales activity in other provinces where sales have struggled, keeping prices more affordable amid ample supply. Meanwhile, anticipated mortgage rate increases are expected to keep activity in check in markets where homes are already less affordable and prices have continued rising.

The national average price is forecast to rise by a further 1.9 per cent to $424,100 in 2016. Given an ongoing shortage of supply for single family homes in and around the Greater Toronto Area, price growth in 2016 is forecast to be strongest in Ontario (+2.5 per cent) and Alberta (+2.4 per cent).

Gains of around two per cent are forecast for British Columbia and Manitoba, and around one per cent for Saskatchewan and Quebec. Average home price in the Atlantic region is forecast to hold steady in 2016.

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About The Canadian Real Estate Association
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada's largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 109,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

For more information, please contact:

Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

Ottawa, ON, January 15, 2015- According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales activity was down on a month-over-month basis in December 2014.

Highlights:

• National home sales fell 5.8% from November to December.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 7.9% above December 2013 levels.
• The number of newly listed homes rose 1.1% from November to December.
• The Canadian housing market remains balanced.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 5.4% year-over-year in December.
• The national average sale price rose 3.8% on a year-over-year basis in December.

The number of home sales processed through the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations fell 5.8 per cent in December 2014 compared to November and remained above year-ago levels.

December sales were down from the previous month in almost two-thirds of all local housing markets, led by declines of about 25 per cent in both Calgary and Edmonton. Activity also slipped by about five per cent in the Greater Toronto Area.

“Home sales activity remained above year-ago levels in most local housing markets,” said CREA President Beth Crosbie. “Sales were also stronger in December than they were the previous month in about one-third of all local markets in Canada. This underscores the fact that all real estate is local. Nobody knows this better than your local REALTOR®, who remains your best source for information about how the housing market is shaping up where you currently live or might like to in the future.”

“December sales were down from the previous month in a number of Canada’s largest and most active housing markets, indicating a broadly based cooling off for Canadian home sales as 2014 came to an end,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Even so, sales remain above year-ago levels in many of the same markets.”

“Given the uncertain outlook for oil prices, it’s no surprise consumer confidence in Alberta softened and moved some home buyers to the sidelines,” said Klump. “With regards to slower activity in Calgary and Edmonton, sales in these two markets had been running strong all year before they returned to levels that are entirely average for the month of December.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in December stood 7.9 per cent above levels reported in the same month in 2013. Sales for the month were up from year-ago levels in about two-thirds of all local markets, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, the Greater Toronto Area, and Montreal.

Some 481,162 homes traded hands via the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations on an actual (not seasonally adjusted) basis in 2014 — the highest annual level in seven years. Annual sales activity in 2014 was up 5.1 per cent from the previous year and stood 2.6 per cent above the 10-year annual average.

The number of newly listed homes rose 1.1 per cent in December compared to November. Led by Calgary, Regina and Ottawa, new supply was up in just over half of all local markets.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 51.8 per cent in December, down from the mid-55 per cent range in the previous four months.

A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 per cent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings above and below this range indicating sellers’ and buyers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was within this range in just over two-thirds of all local markets in November. More than half of the British Columbia, Alberta and Southern Ontario markets that had been in seller’s market territory in November returned to balanced market territory in December. This list included Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and the Greater Toronto Area.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 6.2 months of inventory nationally at the end of December 2014, up from 5.8 months in November. Together with the softer reading for the sales-to-new listings ratio, this suggests that the Canadian housing market has become more balanced.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 5.38 per cent on a year-over-year basis in December. Monthly price gains held steady between five and five-and-a-half per cent throughout 2014.

In December, year-over-year price growth decelerated compared to November for townhouse/row units but accelerated for other types of homes tracked by the index. Two-storey single family homes continue to post the biggest year-over-year price gains (+6.98 per cent), followed closely by townhouse/row units (+5.31 per cent) and one-storey single family homes (+4.51 per cent). Price growth remained comparatively more modest for apartment units (+3.51 per cent).

Price gains varied among housing markets tracked by the index. As in recent months,

Calgary (+8.80 per cent), Greater Toronto (+7.89 per cent), and Greater Vancouver (+5.82 per cent) continued to post the biggest year-over-year increases. By contrast, prices in Regina declined by 3.48 per cent.

In other markets from West to East, prices were up between 2.2 and 2.6 per cent on a year-over-year basis in the Fraser Valley, Victoria, and Vancouver Island, and by less than one per cent in Saskatoon, Ottawa, Greater Montreal, and Greater Moncton.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because it is not affected by changes in the mix of sales activity the way that average price is.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in December 2014 was $405,233, representing an increase of 3.8 per cent year-over-year and its smallest increase since May 2013.

The national average home price remains skewed by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation, the average price is a relatively more modest $319,481 and the year-over-year increase shrinks to 1.9 per cent.

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PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 109,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

The Bank of Canada announced on October 22nd, 2014 that it was holding its trend-setting overnight lending rate at 1 per cent.

Its most recent rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report suggest a number of reasons why interest rates aren’t going up anytime soon:

1) Recovery in exports not ready to stand on own legs. Recent growth in the U.S. has led to a weaker Canada–U.S. currency exchange rate. That is good news for Canadian exports to the U.S. , our largest trading partner. The Bank still expects that the engine for Canadian economic growth will switch from consumer spending to exports. A hike in its trend-setting interest rate would put that in jeopardy, so making that switch depends in part on the Canadian dollar remaining at its weakened level.

2) Business investment remains weak. Stronger investment is the other engine for Canadian economic growth that the Bank expects to take over from consumer spending. Stronger business investment continues to rely on — and will likely lag — a sustained improvement in exports. Stronger exports and investment both require that interest rates remain low.

3) Inflation is on target. The Bank said it views overall inflation as evolving in line with the Bank’s expectations. The Bank also said, “underlying inflationary pressures are muted”. That means it thinks its trend-setting policy interest rate is right where it needs to be. That makes raising or lowering it is unnecessary. Inflation remains close to the Bank’s 2 per cent target.

4) Global uncertainty. The Bank noted that global economic growth was weaker than it anticipated in its July Monetary Policy Report, and is facing headwinds. It also recognized a “significant correction in global financial markets”. European economic growth was revised down significantly over the forecast horizon. The recent decline in oil prices also introduces uncertainty for investment in Canada’s energy sector.

5) Canadian economic growth will be running below capacity for longer. The Bank pushed back the date as to when it expects the economy to return to full capacity. It previously expected it to happen “around mid-2016”. Now it expects it will take until “the second half of 2016”.

As of October 22nd, 2014, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 4.79 per cent, unchanged from the previous Bank rate announcement in September and down 0.55 percentage points from one year ago. The next interest rate announcement will be on December 3rd, 2014.

The next update to the Monetary Policy Report will be on January 21st, 2015.

(CREA 10/22/2014)

Ottawa, ON, October 15, 2014 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales activity in September 2014 was down from the previous month.

Highlights:

• National home sales fell 1.4% from August to September.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 10.6% above September 2013 levels.
• The number of newly listed homes declined by 1.6% from August to September.
• The Canadian housing market remains balanced.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 5.3% year-over-year in September.
• The national average sale price rose 5.9% on a year-over-year basis in September.

The number of home sales processed through the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate

Boards and Associations fell by 1.4 per cent on a month-over-month basis in September 2014, marking the first monthly decline since January of this year.

Activity was down in about 60 per cent of all local housing markets in September, led by monthly declines in Calgary, Edmonton, Central Toronto, Kitchener-Waterloo, London & St. Thomas, Windsor-Essex, and Ottawa. Home sales rose on a month-over-month basis in Fraser Valley, Vancouver Island, the Okanagan region, Mississauga, Durham and York regions of the Greater Toronto Area, Sherbrooke, and the Northern region of Nova Scotia.

“Affordably priced single family homes are in short supply in some of Canada’s hottest housing markets, which contributed to the monthly decline in national sales activity in September,” said CREA President Beth Crosbie. “That said, there are other markets with ample supply but sellers there are holding firm on price. There is a lot of variation in housing market trends depending on the type of housing, neighbourhood and price segment. All real estate is local and your REALTOR® is your best source for information about how the housing market is shaping up where you currently live or might like to in the future.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in September stood 10.6 per cent above levels reported in the same month last year. September sales were up from year-ago levels in about 80 per cent of all local markets, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, the Okanagan region, Calgary, Greater Toronto and Montreal. The increase reflects activity in September 2013 that was handicapped by the occurrence of five Sundays, since that day is the lowest volume trading day for home sales.

Sales activity for the year-to-date in September was five per cent above where it stood in the first nine months of 2013, and remains broadly in line (+1.6 per cent) with the 10-year average for the period.

The number of newly listed homes declined by 1.6 per cent in September compared to August. New supply was down in just over half of all local markets, led by Calgary, Edmonton, Greater Toronto, Kingston and Ottawa.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 55.7 per cent in September. With sales and new listings having fallen in tandem, it was little changed from its reading of 55.6 per cent the previous month. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 per cent is usually described as a balanced market.

Just over half of all local markets posted a sales-to-new listings ratio in this range in September. Two-thirds of the remainder posted readings above the 60 per cent threshold that marks the border between balanced and seller’s market territory, almost all of which are located in British Columbia, Alberta and Southern Ontario.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 5.9 months of inventory nationally at the end of September 2014, up slightly from 5.8 months in August and slightly below the 6.0 months reported in May, June and July.

Both the sales-to-new listings ratio and the number of months of inventory remain well within balanced market territory while pointing to a national market that has tightened since the beginning of the year.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because it is not affected by changes in the mix of sales activity the way that average price is. Greater Moncton joins the MLS® HPI this month, bringing the total number of markets covered by the index to 11, representing more than half of sales activity across Canada.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 5.28 per cent on a year-over-year basis in September. Price growth has been steady at about five to five-and-a-half per cent since the beginning of the year.

Year-over-year price growth accelerated slightly for two-storey single family homes and slowed further for apartment units. Price gains for one-storey single family homes and townhouse/row units were little changed compared to August.

Two-storey single family homes continue to post the biggest year-over-year price gains (+6.52 per cent), followed closely by townhouse/row units (+5.51 per cent) and one-storey single family homes (+5.07 per cent). Price growth for apartment units remains comparatively more modest (+3.05 per cent).

Price growth varied among housing markets tracked by the index. As in recent months, the biggest gains were posted by Calgary (+10.11 per cent), Greater Toronto (+7.82 per cent), and Greater Vancouver (+5.26 per cent). Price gains were fairly flat elsewhere, with only Vancouver Island having posted year-over-year gains greater than consumer price inflation.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in September 2014 was $408,795, up 5.9 per cent from the same month last year.

The national average price continues to be skewed upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation, the average price is a relatively more modest $325,406 and the year-over-year increase shrinks to 4.5 per cent.

“Sales activity and prices in the third quarter were up compared to the second quarter, although momentum going into the fourth quarter is showing tentative signs of waning,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “The continuation of extraordinarily low mortgage rates has been and will continue to be the key support for home sales activity amid continuing price increases in some of Canada’s most active and expensive urban centres.”

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PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 111,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

The Bank of Canada announced on September 3^rd, 2014 that it was holding its trend-setting overnight lending rate at 1 per cent.

The overnight rate has not moved in four years. It’s likely that it will remain where it is for some time yet.  Why?

1. Inflation is on target — Inflation recently increased and is tracking close to the Bank’s 2 per cent target. However, the Bank believes the increase reflects temporary factors and cited evidence in support of this in its policy rate announcement. As a result, it does not see interest rate hikes as being necessary to rein it in. Instead, the Bank thinks inflation will keep itself in check as temporary factors dissipate.
2. Uncertainty remains high — While the U.S. economic recovery appears to be back on track after a dismal first quarter, European economic growth has faltered due in part to its trade sanctions with Russia. This means low interest rates are still needed to support Canadian economic growth while questions marks loom about the outlooks for global economic growth, demand for Canadian exports, and Canadian economic growth.
3. Canadian exports need help from the currency exchange rate –The Bank rate announcement noted that “Canadian exports surged in the second quarter”. The reasons cited were strengthening U.S. investment and “the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar”. Hiking interest rates too soon would result in a stronger loonie and dampened Canadian exports. The Bank is counting on stronger exports to lift business investment and economic growth.
4. Higher exports have not yet translated into stronger investment or hiring:The Bank was pleased to see the pickup in exports but noted, “While an increasing number of export sectors appear to be turning the corner toward recovery, this pickup will need to be sustained before it will translate into higher business investment and hiring.” As such, interest rates will need to remain stimulative in order to entice firms into increased investment and hiring even if exports remain strong.

With these reasons in mind, interest rates are unlikely to rise in the near future.

One notable change in language in the September 3^rd announcement was the removal of any references to a soft landing in the housing market. This Bank said that the housing market has in fact remained stronger than previously anticipated and that risks associated with household imbalances have “not diminished”.

That said, it is possible that stronger U.S. growth, a surge in exports, and the current strength of the housing market could all reflect a rebound from weak performances this past winter, which was unusually harsh.

As such, the Bank said that it remains “neutral with respect to the next change of its policy rate”, and will wait for new information as regards their outlook and assessment of risks to economic growth and inflation.

As of September 3^rd, 2014, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 4.79 per cent, unchanged from the previous Bank rate announcement on July 16^th, 2014 and down 0.55 percentage points from the same time one year ago.

The next interest rate announcement will be on October 22^nd, 2014, and will be accompanied by an update to the Monetary Policy Report which contains the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, risks to its economic projections, and an update to its estimate for potential Canadian economic growth.  

(CREA 9/3/2014)

Beginning on October 23^rd, a new .REALTOR top-level-domain (TLD) will be made available to members of The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) in Canada, and members of the National Association of Realtors^® (NAR) in the U.S.

The majority of homebuyers begin their searches online, and a .REALTOR TLD will allow members of CREA to stand out from other real estate professionals. It will also ensure consumers know they are dealing with licenced real estate professionals who adhere to CREA’s Code of Ethics.

“We are excited to offer this new and unique branding opportunity to our members,” said Beth Crosbie, president of CREA. “A .REALTOR domain communicates the positive attributes of trust, professionalism and community that consumers associate with the REALTOR^® name.”

The new .REALTOR TLD will be made available to Canadian REALTORS^®, their local boards and their provincial associations through an agreement that CREA has entered into with NAR.

National Association of Realtors^® began the TLD application process eight years ago through the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN), the organization that coordinates domains and Internet Protocol addresses globally. CREA is NAR’s exclusive marketing partner and responsible for the .REALTOR domain in Canada.

“NAR is one of the first associations that has been approved to offer a TLD exclusively for its membership, demonstrating our organization’s commitment to its members and showcasing the value of the REALTOR^® brand,” stated Steve Brown, president of NAR. “When consumers visit a .REALTOR website, they will know that they have reached a source of comprehensive and accurate real estate information, as well as someone with unparalleled insight into the local market.”

CREA will provide the first 10,000 members who register for a .REALTOR TLD with a free one-year licence on a first-come first-served basis.

The Canadian Real Estate Association is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 111,000 REALTORS^® working through some 90 real estate boards and associations.

The National Association of Realtors^®, “The Voice for Real Estate” is America’s largest trade association representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.